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Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia

  • Jos Barlow
  • , Nathália S. Carvalho
  • , Cássio Alencar Nunes
  • , Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar
  • , Ane Alencar
  • , Liana O. Anderson
  • , Luiz E. O. C Aragão
  • , Fabricio Baccaro
  • , Mike Barrett
  • , Erika Berenguer
  • , Kristian Bodolai
  • , Paulo Monteiro Brando
  • , Thiago B. A. Couto
  • , Tomas Ferreira Domingues
  • , Fernando Elias
  • , Ted R. Feldpausch
  • , Igor José Malfetoni Ferreira
  • , Joice N. Ferreira
  • , Bernardo M. Flores
  • , David Galbraith
  • Toby Alan Gardner, Emanuel Gloor, Marina Hirota, Valerie Kapos, David M. Lapola, Cecília Leal, Alexander Charles Lees, Bel Lyon, Marcia N. Macedo, Yadvinder Malhi, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon Junior, Patrick Meir, Lina M. Mercado, Oliver Metcalf, Leonardo de Sousa Miranda, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Douglas C. Morton, Jeanne L. Nel, Rafael Silva Oliveira, Oliver L. Phillips, Lucy Rowland, Juliana Schietti, Camila V. J. Silva, Celso H. L. Silva-Junior, Patrícia S. Silva, Juliana M. Silveira, Divino Vicente Silvério, Stephen Sitch, Paulo Amador Tavares, Cristina Telhado, Ima C. G. Vieira, Helga Correa Wiederhecker

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Amazonia is highly sensitive to climate extremes, yet we lack an Amazon-wide assessment that examines the spatial-temporal changes in these extreme conditions. We address this within seasons and across the hydrological year, using a quantiles approach that integrates the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes and by linking changes in temperature with evapotranspiration. We show that high temperature extremes and temperature-linked measures of water deficit are both changing at a much faster rate than central trends. The 95th percentile of maximum temperatures in the driest period increased by 0.49 °C per decade (dec-1) compared to 0.21°C dec-1 for the central trend of mean temperatures for the year. Crucially, over 700,000 square kilometres in central-north Amazonia have experienced increases in extreme dry season temperatures ≥ 0.75 °C dec-1 ( ≥ 3.22 °C over 43 years). Adaptation measures for these rapid changes in climate extremes must include preventing the deforestation and disturbances that amplify risks.
Original languageEnglish
Article number746 (2026)
JournalCommunications Earth & Environment
Volume7
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 10 Sept 2026

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 13 - Climate Action
    SDG 13 Climate Action

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