Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century

Henrique M. Pereira; Paul W. Leadley; Vânia Proença; Rob Alkemade; Jörn P. W. Scharlemann; Juan F. Fernandez-Manjarres; Miguel B.  Araújo; Patricia Balvanera; Reinette Biggs; William W. L. Cheung; Louise Chini; H. David Cooper; Eric L. Gilman; Sylvie Guénette; George C. Hurtt; Henry P. Huntington; Georgina M. Mace; Thierry Oberdorff; Carmen Revenga; Patrícia Rodrigues; Robert J. Scholes; Ussif Rashid Sumaila; Matt Walpole

doi:10.1126/science.1196624

Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century

Henrique M. Pereira, Paul W. Leadley, Vânia Proença, Rob Alkemade, Jörn P. W. Scharlemann, Juan F. Fernandez-Manjarres, Miguel B. Araújo, Patricia Balvanera, Reinette Biggs, William W. L. Cheung, Louise Chini, H. David Cooper, Eric L. Gilman, Sylvie Guénette, George C. Hurtt, Henry P. Huntington, Georgina M. Mace, Thierry Oberdorff, Carmen Revenga, Patrícia RodriguesRobert J. Scholes, Ussif Rashid Sumaila, Matt Walpole

School of Environmental Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1423 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1496-1501
Number of pages	6
Journal	Science
Volume	330
Issue number	6010
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1196624
Publication status	Published - 2010

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1126/science.1196624

Cite this

Pereira, H. M., Leadley, P. W., Proença, V., Alkemade, R., Scharlemann, J. P. W., Fernandez-Manjarres, J. F., Araújo, M. B., Balvanera, P., Biggs, R., Cheung, W. W. L., Chini, L., Cooper, H. D., Gilman, E. L., Guénette, S., Hurtt, G. C., Huntington, H. P., Mace, G. M., Oberdorff, T., Revenga, C., ... Walpole, M. (2010). Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science, 330(6010), 1496-1501. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1196624

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title = "Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century",

abstract = "Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.",

author = "Pereira, {Henrique M.} and Leadley, {Paul W.} and V{\^a}nia Proen{\c c}a and Rob Alkemade and Scharlemann, {J{\"o}rn P. W.} and Fernandez-Manjarres, {Juan F.} and Ara{\'u}jo, {Miguel B.} and Patricia Balvanera and Reinette Biggs and Cheung, {William W. L.} and Louise Chini and Cooper, {H. David} and Gilman, {Eric L.} and Sylvie Gu{\'e}nette and Hurtt, {George C.} and Huntington, {Henry P.} and Mace, {Georgina M.} and Thierry Oberdorff and Carmen Revenga and Patr{\'i}cia Rodrigues and Scholes, {Robert J.} and Sumaila, {Ussif Rashid} and Matt Walpole",

year = "2010",

doi = "10.1126/science.1196624",

language = "English",

volume = "330",

pages = "1496--1501",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

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Pereira, HM, Leadley, PW, Proença, V, Alkemade, R, Scharlemann, JPW, Fernandez-Manjarres, JF, Araújo, MB, Balvanera, P, Biggs, R, Cheung, WWL, Chini, L, Cooper, HD, Gilman, EL, Guénette, S, Hurtt, GC, Huntington, HP, Mace, GM, Oberdorff, T, Revenga, C, Rodrigues, P, Scholes, RJ, Sumaila, UR & Walpole, M 2010, 'Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century', Science, vol. 330, no. 6010, pp. 1496-1501. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1196624

TY - JOUR

T1 - Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century

AU - Pereira, Henrique M.

AU - Leadley, Paul W.

AU - Proença, Vânia

AU - Alkemade, Rob

AU - Scharlemann, Jörn P. W.

AU - Fernandez-Manjarres, Juan F.

AU - Araújo, Miguel B.

AU - Balvanera, Patricia

AU - Biggs, Reinette

AU - Cheung, William W. L.

AU - Chini, Louise

AU - Cooper, H. David

AU - Gilman, Eric L.

AU - Guénette, Sylvie

AU - Hurtt, George C.

AU - Huntington, Henry P.

AU - Mace, Georgina M.

AU - Oberdorff, Thierry

AU - Revenga, Carmen

AU - Rodrigues, Patrícia

AU - Scholes, Robert J.

AU - Sumaila, Ussif Rashid

AU - Walpole, Matt

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

AB - Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

U2 - 10.1126/science.1196624

DO - 10.1126/science.1196624

M3 - Article

VL - 330

SP - 1496

EP - 1501

JO - Science

JF - Science

SN - 0036-8075

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ER -