TY - JOUR
T1 - Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century
AU - Morales, Mariano S.
AU - Cook, Edward R.
AU - Barichivich, Jonathan
AU - Christie, Duncan A.
AU - Villalba, Ricardo
AU - Lequesne, Carlos
AU - Srur, Ana M.
AU - Ferrero, M. Eugenia
AU - González-Reyes, Álvaro
AU - Couvreux, Fleur
AU - Matskovsky, Vladimir
AU - Aravena, Juan C.
AU - Lara, Antonio
AU - Mundo, Ignacio A.
AU - Rojas, Facundo
AU - Prieto, María R.
AU - Smerdon, Jason E.
AU - Bianchi, Lucas O.
AU - Masiokas, Mariano H.
AU - Urrutia-Jalabert, Rocio
AU - Rodriguez-Catón, Milagros
AU - Muñoz, Ariel A.
AU - Rojas-Badilla, Moises
AU - Alvarez, Claudio
AU - Lopez, Lidio
AU - Luckman, Brian H.
AU - Lister, David
AU - Harris, Ian
AU - Jones, Philip D.
AU - Williams, A. Park
AU - Velazquez, Gonzalo
AU - Aliste, Diego
AU - Aguilera-Betti, Isabella
AU - Marcotti, Eugenia
AU - Flores, Felipe
AU - Muñoz, Tomás
AU - Cuq, Emilio
AU - Boninsegna, José A.
PY - 2020/7/21
Y1 - 2020/7/21
N2 - South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
AB - South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
KW - Drought atlas
KW - Extreme hydroclimate events
KW - Palaeoclimate reconstruction
KW - South America hydroclimate
KW - Southern Hemisphere climate modes
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85088879419&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2002411117
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2002411117
M3 - Article
VL - 117
SP - 16816
EP - 16823
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
SN - 0027-8424
IS - 29
ER -