Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects

Ian Bateman, Matthew Agarwala, Amy Binner, Emma Coombes, Brett Day, Silvia Ferrini, Carlo Fezzi, Michael Hutchins, Andrew Lovett, Paulette Posen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

29 Citations (Scopus)
29 Downloads (Pure)


We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)172-184
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Environmental Management
Early online date22 Jun 2016
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2016


  • Integrated models
  • Land use
  • Agriculture
  • Climate change
  • Water quality
  • Recreation
  • Economics
  • Spatial analysis

Cite this