TY - JOUR
T1 - Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts
AU - Baldwin, Mark P.
AU - Stephenson, David B.
AU - Thompson, David W. J.
AU - Dunkerton, Timothy J.
AU - Charlton, Andrew J.
AU - O'Neill, Alan
PY - 2003/8/1
Y1 - 2003/8/1
N2 - We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.
AB - We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.
UR - https://publons.com/publon/5036275/
U2 - 10.1126/SCIENCE.1087143
DO - 10.1126/SCIENCE.1087143
M3 - Article
VL - 301
SP - 636
EP - 640
JO - Science
JF - Science
SN - 0036-8075
IS - 5633
ER -