Sarah L. Hughes, Jonathan Tinker, Stephen Dye, Olga Andres, David I. Berry, Leon Hermanson, Helene Hewitt, N. Penny Holliday, Elizabeth C. Kent, Kevin Kennington, Mark Inall, Tim Smyth

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• The first MCCIP ARC in 2006 reported following what was then the warmest year globally in 2005 (0.26°C higher than the 1981-2010 average).
• Since 2005, new global record temperatures have been set in 2010 and then in each successive year 2014, 2015 and 2016. In these last three record years the global average temperature anomaly was 0.31,0.44, 0.56°C higher than the
1981-2010 average.
• 2014 was a record warm year for coastal air and sea temperatures around the UK. Between 1984 and 2014 coastal water temperatures rose around the UK at an average rate of 0.28 °C/decade. The rate varies between regions, the slowest warming was in the Celtic Sea at 0.17 °C/decade and the maximum rate was in the Southern North Sea at 0.45 °C/decade.
• There is also variability over shorter time periods. In all regions of UK seas there was a negative trend in the 10-year period between 2003 and 2013. This is due to variability within the ocean /atmosphere system which is natural.
• There is a trend towards fewer in-situ observations, and this will ultimately influence the confidence in future assessments.
• Some gridded datasets can offer alternatives to single point observations, but to understand the patterns of ocean variability, the quality information from ocean timeseries cannot yet be replaced by surface observations or autonomous data collection.
• The first MCCIP report card in 2006 used the UKCIP projections from 2002 which had a very limited representation of the SST.
• The latest updates to the UK Climate Projections shelf seas models were published in 2016 and projected increases in sea surface temperature for 2069-89 relative to 1960-89 of over 3 °C for most of the North Sea, English Channel,
Irish and Celtic Seas. For the deeper areas to the north and west of Scotland out towards Rockall and in the Faroe Shetland Channel the increase in temperature is projected to be closer to 2 °C.
• Over the last 10 years there has been a steady improvement in the scientific basis underlying centennial sea temperature projections for the seas around the UK, and significant progress in the field of seasonal and decadal projections.
• The scientific basis to such projections and predictions will continue to improve over the next 10 years, with increasing resolution, treatment of climate uncertainties, and methodology. Over the centennial scale the difference between emissions scenarios are still the source of the largest uncertainties.
• Development of North West European Shelf (NWS) modelling systems driven by seasonal forecasting systems may allow NWS temperature prediction over the monthly to decadal period.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationMCCIP Science Review 2017
PublisherMarine Climate Change Impacts Partnership
Number of pages20
Publication statusPublished - 31 Jul 2017

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