The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5°C warming

Sonia I. Seneviratne; Joeri Rogelj; Roland Séférian; Richard Wartenburger; Myles R. Allen; Michelle Cain; Richard J. Millar; Kristie L. Ebi; Neville Ellis; Ove Hoegh-Guldberg; Antony J. Payne; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Petra Tschakert; Rachel F. Warren

doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5°C warming

Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joeri Rogelj, Roland Séférian, Richard Wartenburger, Myles R. Allen, Michelle Cain, Richard J. Millar, Kristie L. Ebi, Neville Ellis, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Antony J. Payne, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Petra Tschakert, Rachel F. Warren

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Abstract

The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	41–49
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature
Volume	558
Early online date	6 Jun 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4
Publication status	Published - 7 Jun 2018

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10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4

Accepted manuscriptAccepted author manuscript, 3.64 MBLicence: Unspecified
Supplementary informationOther version, 1.42 MBLicence: Unspecified

Rachel Warren
- R.Warrenuea.acuk
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research - Professor of Global Change and Environmental Biology
- School of Environmental Sciences - Professor of Global Change and Environmental Biology
- Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences - Member
- Environmental Social Sciences - Member
- ClimateUEA - Member
Person: Research Group Member, Academic, Teaching & Research

Cite this

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title = "The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement{\textquoteright}s aim of 1.5°C warming",

abstract = "The United Nations{\textquoteright} Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a {\textquoteleft}1.5 °C warmer world{\textquoteright} may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society{\textquoteright}s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.",

author = "Seneviratne, {Sonia I.} and Joeri Rogelj and Roland S{\'e}f{\'e}rian and Richard Wartenburger and Allen, {Myles R.} and Michelle Cain and Millar, {Richard J.} and Ebi, {Kristie L.} and Neville Ellis and Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and Payne, {Antony J.} and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Petra Tschakert and Warren, {Rachel F.}",

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AU - Seneviratne, Sonia I.

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

AU - Séférian, Roland

AU - Wartenburger, Richard

AU - Allen, Myles R.

AU - Cain, Michelle

AU - Millar, Richard J.

AU - Ebi, Kristie L.

AU - Ellis, Neville

AU - Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

AU - Payne, Antony J.

AU - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

AU - Tschakert, Petra

AU - Warren, Rachel F.

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AB - The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

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SN - 0028-0836

ER -

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5°C warming

Abstract

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Rachel Warren

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