TY - JOUR
T1 - The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent
AU - Latos, Beata
AU - Peyrillé, Philippe
AU - Lefort, Thierry
AU - Baranowski, Dariusz B.
AU - Flatau, Maria K.
AU - Flatau, Piotr J.
AU - Florida Riama, Nelly
AU - Permana, Donaldi S.
AU - Rydbeck, Adam V.
AU - Matthews, Adrian J.
N1 - Data availability: Tropical cyclone tracks were obtained from NOAA’s International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) through their web site at ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs. The IMERG precipitation data were supplied by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration through their web site gpm.nasa.gov. Research product of the Himawari L1 Gridded Data (produced from Himawari-8) that was used in this paper was supplied by the P-Tree System, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). This dataset is available at ftp.ptree.jaxa.jp/jma/netcdf, after registration at http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/ptree/index.html. The ERA-5: the fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate was obtained from Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store through their web site at cds.climate.copernicus.eu. The univariate OLR-based MJO time series indices (OMI) were supplied by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through their web site at psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex/omi.1x.txt. The real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) time series indices were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology through their web site at poama.bom.gov.au/project/maproom/RMM/.
Code availability: The MATLAB and Python codes used for processing papers’ data are available through the corresponding author, i. e. Beata Latos ([email protected]).
Funding information: B.L. and D.B.B. were partially funded by The National Science Center (NCN) through project no. 2019/35/B/ST10/03463. B.L. acknowledges support from the NCN project no. 2020/37/N/ST10/03428. M.F. and A.V.R. acknowledge support from ONR DRIs PISTON and MISO-BoB as well as NRL 6.1 base funding. A.J.M. was partially funded by the Natural Environment Research Council through the TerraMaris project (grant NE/R016704/1).
PY - 2023/2/15
Y1 - 2023/2/15
N2 - Tropical cyclone Seroja was one of the first tropical cyclones to significantly impact Indonesian land, and the strongest one in such close proximity to Timor Island. In April 2021 Seroja brought historic flooding to near-equatorial regions of Indonesia and East Timor, as well as impacting Western Australia. Here we show that the unusual near-equatorial cyclogenesis in close proximity to a land mass was due to “perfect storm” conditions associated with multiple wave interactions. Specifically, this was associated with enhanced equatorial convection on the leading edge of a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. Within the MJO, the interaction between a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave and two convectively coupled Kelvin waves span up the initial vortex and accelerated cyclogenesis. On average, such favorable atmospheric conditions can occur once per year. These results indicate the potential for increased predictability of tropical cyclones over the Maritime Continent.
AB - Tropical cyclone Seroja was one of the first tropical cyclones to significantly impact Indonesian land, and the strongest one in such close proximity to Timor Island. In April 2021 Seroja brought historic flooding to near-equatorial regions of Indonesia and East Timor, as well as impacting Western Australia. Here we show that the unusual near-equatorial cyclogenesis in close proximity to a land mass was due to “perfect storm” conditions associated with multiple wave interactions. Specifically, this was associated with enhanced equatorial convection on the leading edge of a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. Within the MJO, the interaction between a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave and two convectively coupled Kelvin waves span up the initial vortex and accelerated cyclogenesis. On average, such favorable atmospheric conditions can occur once per year. These results indicate the potential for increased predictability of tropical cyclones over the Maritime Continent.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85148114533&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-023-36498-w
DO - 10.1038/s41467-023-36498-w
M3 - Article
VL - 14
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
SN - 2041-1723
M1 - 856
ER -
