The Sensitivity of Subjective Probability to time and elicitation method

Graham Loomes, Judith Mehta

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


The paper reports the results of a survey designed to elicit probability judgements for different types of events: ‘pure chance’ events, for which objective probabilities can be calculated; ‘public’ events, about which there may be some discussion in social groups and the media; and ‘personal’ events, such as those relating to crime or accidental injury. Even among respondents deemed to be ‘well-calibrated’ in the domain of pure chance events we find limited sensitivity to the ‘temporal scope’ of public and personal events—this being especially marked for personal events. We discuss possible reasons and some implications for policy-related survey work.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)201-16
Number of pages16
JournalJournal of Risk and Uncertainty
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2007

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