The Wisdom of Amateur Crowds: Evidence from an Online Community of Sports Tipsters

Alasdair Brown, J. James Reade

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)
6 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

We analyse the accuracy of crowd forecasts produced on Oddsportal, an online community of amateur sports tipsters. Tipsters in this community are ranked according to the betting return on their tips, but there are no prizes for accuracy. Nevertheless, we find that aggregated tips in this community contain information not in betting prices. A strategy of betting when a majority predict an outcome produces average returns of 1.317% for 68,339 events. The accuracy of these forecasts stems from the wisdom of the whole crowd, as selecting sections of the crowd based on experience or past forecast accuracy does not improve betting returns.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1073-1081
Number of pages9
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume272
Issue number3
Early online date11 Jul 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2019

Keywords

  • OR in sports
  • sports betting
  • tipsters
  • wisdom of crowds

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