Theory and the future of land-climate science

Michael P. Byrne, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Jacob Scheff, Ori Adam, Alexis Berg, Michela Biasutti, Simona Bordoni, Aiguo Dai, Ruth Geen, Matthew Henry, Spencer A. Hill, Cathy Hohenegger, Vincent Humphrey, Manoj Joshi, Alexandra G. Konings, Marysa M. Laguë, F. Hugo Lambert, Flavio Lehner, Justin S. Mankin, Kaighin A. McCollKaren A. McKinnon, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Marianne Pietschnig, Luca Schmidt, Andrew P. Schurer, E. Marian Scott, David Sexton, Steven C. Sherwood, Lucas R. Vargas Zeppetello, Yi Zhang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Climate over land—where humans live and the majority of food is produced—is changing rapidly, driving severe impacts through extreme heat, wildfires, drought and flooding. Our ability to monitor and model this changing climate is being transformed through new observational systems and increasingly complex Earth system models. But fundamental understanding of the processes governing land climate has not kept pace, weakening our ability to interpret and utilize data from these advanced tools. Here we argue that for land-climate science to accelerate forwards, an alternative approach is needed. We advocate a parallel scientific effort, one emphasizing robust theories, that aims to inspire current and future land-climate scientists to better comprehend the processes governing land climate, its variability and extremes and its sensitivity to global warming. Such an effort, we believe, is essential to better understand the risks people face, where they live, in an era of climate change.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1079–1086
Number of pages8
JournalNature Geoscience
Volume17
Issue number11
Early online date11 Oct 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2024

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