TY - JOUR
T1 - Using human observations with instrument-based metrics to understand changing rainfall patterns
AU - Savo, V.
AU - Kohfeld, K. E.
AU - Sillmann, J.
AU - Morton, C.
AU - Bailey, J.
AU - Haslerud, A. S.
AU - Le Quéré, C.
AU - Lepofsky, D.
N1 - Data availability statement: The data about people observations are included in this article, in the supplementary information files and as source data. The instrumental observations were downloaded from the websites provided in Supplementary Table 1. Data completeness for the GCHNDEX and HadEX3 datasets (R95p, CDD; 1955–2005) are included as source data. Source data are provided with this paper. Correspondence and requests for other data should be addressed to V.S. Source data are provided with this paper.
Code availability statement: Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to V.S.
Funding information: V.S. was supported by the Government of Canada/avec l’appui du gouvernement du Canada, the Tula Foundation (Heriot Bay, BC, Canada) through the Hakai Institute (Heriot Bay, BC, Canada) and the Department of Education Science, University Roma Tre. K.E.K. was supported by the NSERC Canada Research Chair programme and NSERC Discovery Grant R832686. J.S. and A.S.H. were supported by the Research Council of Norway grant 244551/E10 (CiXPAG). J.S. further acknowledges funding by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy - EXC 2037: “CLICCS-Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” - Project Number: 390683824, contribution to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of Universität Hamburg. C.L.Q. was supported by the UK Royal Society (Grant RP\R1\191063).
PY - 2024/11/5
Y1 - 2024/11/5
N2 - Shifting precipitation regimes are a well-documented and pervasive consequence of climate change. Subsistence-oriented communities worldwide can identify changes in rainfall patterns that most affect their lives. Here we scrutinize the importance of human-based rainfall observations (collated through a literature review spanning from 1994 to 2013) as climate metrics and the relevance of instrument-based precipitation indices to subsistence activities. For comparable time periods (1955-2005), changes observed by humans match well with instrumental records at same locations for well-established indices of rainfall (72% match), drought (76%), and extreme rainfall (81%), demonstrating that we can bring together human and instrumental observations. Many communities (1114 out of 1827) further identify increased variability and unpredictability in the start, end, and continuity of rainy seasons, all of which disrupt the cropping calendar, particularly in the Tropics. These changes in rainfall patterns and predictability are not fully captured by existing indices, and their social-ecological impacts are still understudied.
AB - Shifting precipitation regimes are a well-documented and pervasive consequence of climate change. Subsistence-oriented communities worldwide can identify changes in rainfall patterns that most affect their lives. Here we scrutinize the importance of human-based rainfall observations (collated through a literature review spanning from 1994 to 2013) as climate metrics and the relevance of instrument-based precipitation indices to subsistence activities. For comparable time periods (1955-2005), changes observed by humans match well with instrumental records at same locations for well-established indices of rainfall (72% match), drought (76%), and extreme rainfall (81%), demonstrating that we can bring together human and instrumental observations. Many communities (1114 out of 1827) further identify increased variability and unpredictability in the start, end, and continuity of rainy seasons, all of which disrupt the cropping calendar, particularly in the Tropics. These changes in rainfall patterns and predictability are not fully captured by existing indices, and their social-ecological impacts are still understudied.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85208602536&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-024-53861-7
DO - 10.1038/s41467-024-53861-7
M3 - Article
VL - 15
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
SN - 2041-1723
M1 - 9563
ER -
