Well-being foundations of populism in Europe

Models of retrospective voting assume that voters’ preferences and choices depend on their subjective well-being, and thus, the belief that a particular candidate if elected, shall implement policies to improve it. We use this framework to address the populist phenomenon in Europe over the last 20 years. We find an inverse relationship between individual life satisfaction and self-reported support for populist parties (i.e., party identification). We further explore that relationship and identify political trust as one mechanism through which changes in life satisfaction affect the probability of supporting a populist party, especially, if positioned at the radical right or left.